Latent class analysis variable selection

We propose a method for selecting variables in latent class analysis, which is the most common model-based clustering method for discrete data. The method assesses a variable's usefulness for clustering by comparing two models, given the clustering variables already selected. In one model the variable contributes information about cluster allocation beyond that contained in the already selected variables, and in the other model it does not. A headlong search algorithm is used to explore the model space and select clustering variables. In simulated datasets we found that the method selected the correct clustering variables, and also led to improvements in classification performance and in accuracy of the choice of the number of classes. In two real datasets, our method discovered the same group structure with fewer variables. In a dataset from the International HapMap Project consisting of 639 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 210 members of different groups, our method discovered the same group structure with a much smaller number of SNP

Determination of Pericardial Adipose Tissue Increases the Prognostic Accuracy of Coronary Artery Calcification for Future Cardiovascular Events

Objectives: Pericardial adipose tissue (PAT) is associated with coronary artery plaque accumulation and the incidence of coronary heart disease. We evaluated the possible incremental prognostic value of PAT for future cardiovascular events. Methods: 145 patients (94 males, age 60 10 years) with stable coronary artery disease underwent coronary artery calcification (CAC) scanning in a multislice CT scanner, and the volume of pericardial fat was measured. Mean observation time was 5.4 years. Results: 34 patients experienced a severe cardiac event. They had a significantly higher CAC score (1,708 +/- 2,269 vs. 538 +/- 1,150, p 400, 3.5 (1.9-5.4; p = 0.007) for scores > 800 and 5.9 (3.7-7.8; p = 0.005) for scores > 1,600. When additionally a PAT volume > 200 cm(3) was determined, there was a significant increase in the event rate and relative risk. We calculated a relative risk of 2.9 (1.9-4.2; p = 0.01) for scores > 400, 4.0 (2.1-5.0; p = 0.006) for scores > 800 and 7.1 (4.1-10.2; p = 0.005) for scores > 1,600. Conclusions:The additional determination of PAT increases the predictive power of CAC for future cardiovascular events. PAT might therefore be used as a further parameter for risk stratification. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

Signs of subclinical coronary atherosclerosis in relation to risk factor distribution in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study (HNR)

AIMS: Modern imaging technology allows us the visualization of coronary artery calcification (CAC), a marker of subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. The prevalence, quantity, and risk factors for CAC were compared between two studies with similar imaging protocols but different source populations: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study (HNR). METHODS AND RESULTS: The measured CAC in 2220 MESA participants were compared with those in 3,126 HNR participants with the inclusion criteria such as age 45-75 years, Caucasian race, and free of baseline cardiovascular disease. Despite similar mean levels of CAC of 244.6 among participants in MESA and of 240.3 in HNR (P = 0.91), the prevalence of CAC > 0 was lower in MESA (52.6%) compared with HNR (67.0%) with a prevalence rate ratio of CAC > 0 of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72-0.85] after adjustment for known risk factors. Consequently, among participants with CAC > 0, the participants in MESA tended to have higher levels of CAC than those in HNR (ratio of CAC levels: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.19-1.63), since many HNR participants have small (near zero) CAC values. CONCLUSIONS: The CAC prevalence was lower in the United States (MESA) cohort than in the German (HNR) cohort, which may be explained by more favourable risk factor levels among the MESA participants. The predictors for increased levels of CAC were, however, similar in both cohorts with the exception that male gender, blood pressure, and body mass index were more strongly associated in the HNR cohort

Health behavior modification after electron beam computed tomography and physician consultation

This study aimed to determine whether participants reported altering health behaviors (physical activity, diet, and alcohol consumption) after seeing results from an electron-beam computed tomography (EBCT) scan for coronary artery calcium and reviewing these results with a physician. Clinicians attempt to motivate patients to control cardiovascular risk factors by adopting healthy behaviors and reducing harmful actions. Asymptomatic patients (N = 510) were evaluated by EBCT for the extent of coronary artery calcium. Information pertaining to demographics, health history, and lifestyle/health behaviors was obtained from each participant at the time of the EBCT scan. Patients were given their numerical calcium score, shown images of their coronary arteries, and counseled by a physician for lifestyle and medical risk modification based on their coronary artery calcium score. Approximately 6 years after the scan, participants completed a follow-up questionnaire related to lifestyle modifications. In multivariable analysis, the presence and extent of coronary artery calcium was significantly associated with beneficial health behavior modifications. Specifically, the greater a patient’s coronary artery calcium score, the more likely they were to report increasing exercise (odds ratio = 1.34, P = 0.02), changing diet (odds ratio = 1.40, P < 0.01), and changing alcohol intake (odds ratio = 1.46, P = 0.05). This study suggests that seeing and being counseled on the presence and extent of coronary artery calcium is significantly associated with behavior change

Coronary calcium mass scores measured by identical 64-slice MDCT scanners are comparable: a cardiac phantom study

To assess whether absolute mass scores are comparable or differ between identical 64-slice MDCT scanners of the same manufacturer and to compare absolute mass scores to the physical mass and between scan modes using a calcified phantom. A non-moving anthropomorphic phantom with nine calcifications of three sizes and three densities was scanned 30 times on three 64-slice MDCT scanners of manufacturer A and on three 64-slice MDCT scanners of manufacturer B in both sequential and spiral scan mode. The mean mass scores and mass score variabilities of seven calcifications were determined for all scanners; two non-detectable calcifications were omitted. It was analyzed whether identical scanners yielded similar or significantly different mass scores. Furthermore mass scores were compared to the physical mass and mass scores were compared between scan modes. The mass score calibration factor was determined for all scanners. Mass scores obtained on identical scanners were similar for almost all calcifications. Overall, mass score differences between the scanners were small ranging from 1.5 to 3.4% for the total mass scores, and most differences between scanners were observed for high density calcifications. Mass scores were significantly different from the physical mass for almost all calcifications and all scanners. In sequential mode the total physical mass (167.8 mg) was significantly overestimated (+2.3%) for 4 out of 6 scanners. In spiral mode a significant overestimation (+2.5%) was found for system B and a significant underestimation (−1.8%) for two scanners of system A. Mass scores were dependent on the scan mode, for manufacturer A scores were higher in sequential mode and for manufacturer B in spiral mode. For system A using spiral scan mode no differences were found between identical scanners, whereas a few differences were found using sequential mode. For system B the scan mode did not affect the number of different mass scores between identical scanners. Mass scores obtained in the same scan mode are comparable between identical 64-slice CT scanners and identical 64-slice CT scanners on different sites can be used in follow-up studies. Furthermore, for all systems significant differences were found between mass scores and the physical calcium mass; however, the differences were relatively small and consistent

Multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis: objectives and design

The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis was initiated in July 2000 to investigate the prevalence, correlates, and progression of subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a population-based sample of 6,500 men and women aged 45-84 years. The cohort will be selected from six US field centers. Approximately 38% of the cohort will be White, 28% African-American, 23% Hispanic, and 11% Asian (of Chinese descent). Baseline measurements will include measurement of coronary calcium using computed tomography; measurement of ventricular mass and function using cardiac magnetic resonance imaging; measurement of flow-mediated brachial artery endothelial vasodilation, carotid intimal-medial wall thickness, and distensibility of the carotid arteries using ultrasonography; measurement of peripheral vascular disease using ankle and brachial blood pressures; electrocardiography; and assessments of microalbuminuria, standard CVD risk factors, sociodemographic factors, life habits, and psychosocial factors. Blood samples will be assayed for putative biochemical risk factors and stored for use in nested case-control studies. DNA will be extracted and lymphocytes will be immortalized for genetic studies. Measurement of selected subclinical disease indicators and risk factors will be repeated for the study of progression over 7 years. Participants will be followed through 2008 for identification and characterization of CVD events, including acute myocardial infarction and other coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, and congestive heart failure; therapeutic interventions for CVD; and mortality.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78992/1/BildBluemke2002_AJE.pd

Measurement of coronary calcium scores by electron beam computed tomography or exercise testing as initial diagnostic tool in low-risk patients with suspected coronary artery disease

We determined the efficiency of a screening protocol based on coronary calcium scores (CCS) compared with exercise testing in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD), a normal ECG and troponin levels. Three-hundred-and-four patients were enrolled in a screening protocol including CCS by electron beam computed tomography (Agatston score), and exercise testing. Decision-making was based on CCS. When CCS≥400, coronary angiography (CAG) was recommended. When CCS<10, patients were discharged. Exercise tests were graded as positive, negative or nondiagnostic. The combined endpoint was defined as coronary event or obstructive CAD at CAG. During 12±4 months, CCS≥400, 10–399 and <10 were found in 42, 103 and 159 patients and the combined endpoint occurred in 24 (57%), 14 (14%) and 0 patients (0%), respectively. In 22 patients (7%), myocardial perfusion scintigraphy was performed instead of exercise testing due to the inability to perform an exercise test. A positive, nondiagnostic and negative exercise test result was found in 37, 76 and 191 patients, and the combined endpoint occurred in 11 (30%), 15 (20%) and 12 patients (6%), respectively. Receiver-operator characteristics analysis showed that the area under the curve of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85–0.93) for CCS was superior to 0.69 (95% CI: 0.61–0.78) for exercise testing (P<0.0001). In conclusion, measurement of CCS is an appropriate initial screening test in a well-defined low-risk population with suspected CAD

Predictive value of coronary calcifications for future cardiac events in asymptomatic patients with diabetes mellitus: A prospective study in 716 patients over 8 years

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To establish an efficient prophylaxis of coronary artery disease reliable risk stratification is crucial, especially in the high risk population of patients suffering from diabetes mellitus. This prospective study determined the predictive value of coronary calcifications for future cardiovascular events in asymptomatic patients with diabetes mellitus.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We included 716 patients suffering from diabetes mellitus (430 men, 286 women, age 55.2 ± 15.2 years) in this study. On study entry all patients were asymptomatic and had no history of coronary artery disease. In addition, all patients showed no signs of coronary artery disease in ECG, stress ECG or echocardiography. Coronary calcifications were determined with the Imatron C 150 XP electron beam computed tomograph. For quantification of coronary calcifications we calculated the Agatston score. After a mean observation period of 8.1 ± 1.1 years patients were contacted and the event rate of cardiac death (CD) and myocardial infarction (MI) was determined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During the observation period 40 patients suffered from MI, 36 patients died from acute CD. The initial Agatston score in patients that suffered from MI or died from CD (475 ± 208) was significantly higher compared to those without cardiac events (236 ± 199, p < 0.01). An Agatston score above 400 was associated with a significantly higher annualised event rate for cardiovascular events (5.6% versus 0.7%, p < 0.01). No cardiac events were observed in patients with exclusion of coronary calcifications. Compared to the Framingham risk score and the UKPDS score the Agatston score showed a significantly higher diagnostic accuracy in the prediction of MI with an area under the ROC curve of 0.77 versus 0.68, and 0.71, respectively, p < 0.01.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>By determination of coronary calcifications patients at risk for future MI and CD could be identified within an asymptomatic high risk group of patients suffering from diabetes mellitus. On the other hand future events could be excluded in patients without coronary calcifications.</p

CT screened arterial calcification as a risk factor for mortality after trauma

BACKGROUND: Arterial calcification on Computerised Tomography (CT) is a marker of cardiovascular disease. It is predictive of future adverse cardiac events and mortality in many disease states. The incidence of arterial disease and its impact on outcomes of the injured is not known. The objectives of this study were to describe the incidence of arterial calcification in trauma patients, and establish its impact on mortality. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of all injured patients aged over 45 years presenting to a major trauma centre over a 34-month period. The presence and quantity of coronary, aortic and abdominal arterial calcification on admission CT scans of the chest, abdomen and pelvis was established, and the association between cardiovascular disease and in-hospital mortality following trauma was determined. RESULTS: Five hundred ninety-one patients were included in the study. Cardiac calcium was visible on 432 (73 %) scans, and abdominal arterial calcification on 472 (79.9 %). Fifty (8.5 %) patients died. Patients with Superior Mesenteric (SMA) and Common Iliac Artery calcification had a significantly higher mortality than those without (p < 0.01). In multivariarate analysis, only SMA calcification was independently associated with mortality (OR 2.462, 95 % CI 1.08–5.60, p = 0.032). Coronary calcium demonstrated no independent statistical relationship with death (Left Anterior Descending Artery OR 1.189, 95 % CI 0.51–2.78, Circumflex OR 1.290, 95 % CI 0.56–2.98, Right Coronary Artery OR 0.483, 95 % CI 0.21–1.10). DISCUSSION: This study has demonstrated that the identification of arterial calcification on admission CT scans of trauma patients is possible. Calcification was common, and present in around three-quarters of injured individuals over the age of 45 years. SMA calcium was an independent predictor of mortality. However, whilst the presence of arterial calcium demonstrated a tendency towards lower survival, this association was not significant in other territories, including the coronary arteries. Future studies should investigate further the association and pathophysiology linking SMA disease and mortality in trauma, in addition to the relationship between longer tem survival, adverse cardiac events and arterial calcification in injured patients. CONCLUSIONS: Arterial calcification can be reliably identified on trauma CT scans, and is common in injured patients. Abdominal vascular calcification appears to be a better predictor of mortality than coronary artery disease. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13049-016-0317-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users